Thinking About Waiting for a Recession to Make Your Move? You Might Want to Rethink That.

With renewed concerns about a possible recession making headlines, you may be questioning whether now is the right time to buy or sell a home.

According to a recent survey by John Burns Research and Consulting (JBREC) and Keeping Current Matters (KCM), 68% of people are putting off real estate plans due to economic uncertainty. But that hesitation isn’t always driven by fear. In fact, some buyers are actually feeling hopeful.

Realtor.com reports that in the first quarter of 2025, nearly 30% of surveyed buyers said a recession would make them more likely to purchase a home. Why? Because recessions often lead to lower interest rates as the Federal Reserve works to boost economic activity. That could ease affordability pressures and create more opportunity—especially for buyers with smaller down payments—making it an appealing time to enter the market.

And there’s some truth to the idea that a recession could bring about lower mortgage rates. History shows mortgage rates usually drop during economic slowdowns. That’s not guaranteed – but it is a common pattern. Looking at data from the last six recessions, you can see mortgage rates fell each time (see graph below): 

But here’s what those buyers may not be considering. Many of those hopeful buyers are assuming something else will happen too – that home prices will drop. And that’s where history tells a different story.

According to data from Cotality (formerly CoreLogic), home prices went up in four of the last six recessions (see graph below)

Many people assume that if a recession hits, home prices will tumble like they did during the 2008 housing crash. But that event was a unique scenario—not the norm. In fact, it was the only time we saw such a dramatic drop in home values, and conditions today are very different.

Despite an increase in listings, there’s still a significant shortage of housing inventory. That ongoing imbalance helps keep prices from falling sharply.

Home prices tend to follow their existing trajectory. Right now, that means values are holding steady or even rising in many markets, though at a slower pace than before. A major price drop? That’s unlikely. As Robert Frick, Corporate Economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, puts it:
“Hopes that an economic slowdown will depress housing prices are wishful thinking at this point.”

Final Thoughts

If you’re holding out for home prices to fall during a recession, you might be waiting for a market that never materializes. While a slowdown could bring lower mortgage rates, a significant price drop is not expected.

If you're considering buying or selling, let’s connect. I’ll help you understand what today’s market really means for your goals—and build a strategy that makes sense no matter what the headlines say.